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Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally

Shirley Gate Park Eviction Risk: Lower , George Mason

Tract 51059440600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,168 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51059440600 runs through Shirley Gate Park in George Mason. With 3,168 residents, it scores 5.6/10 for landlords. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 67% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 53% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,215 monthly, set against $145,000 in average yearly household income, roughly 10% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 4% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,018
Renter share10.6%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate4.2%
Median income$145,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Shirley Gate Park
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In George Mason
Very Low
Within county
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#155 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
12 th percentile
Rank, 12th percentileLowHigh
#1,918 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across George Mason and the region

Centroid at 38.8454, -77.3318 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shirley Gate Park scores 1.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from George Mason
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.2% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,215 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from George Mason
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from George Mason
4.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from George Mason
5.0

How Shirley Gate Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shirley Gate Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.21.2This tracttract 440600George Mason: 3.93.9George Masonparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 49Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 19.38%Avg annual filing rate
  • 35.9%Peak (2012)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594406002011: 10 filings (15.62/100 renter HHs)2012: 23 filings (35.94/100 renter HHs)2013: 10 filings (15.62/100 renter HHs)2016: 6 filings (10.34/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 40% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shirley Gate Park

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from George Mason, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059440600

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059440600?

Census tract 51059440600 in the Shirley Gate Park neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059440600?

Median gross rent is $1,215/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059440600?

4.2% of residents in tract 51059440600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,168.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059440600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 39th, minority 69th, housing 45th.
Q5

Is tract 51059440600 considered part of Shirley Gate Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059440600 fall within Shirley Gate Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059440600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 49 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059440600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.38% of renter households, peaking at 35.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059440600 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059440600 compare to George Mason overall?

Tract 51059440600 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of George Mason at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from George Mason; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in George Mason

Top eight tracts in George Mason ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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