Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Shirley Gate Park Eviction Risk: Lower , George Mason
Tract 51059440600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,168 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059440600 is a census tract in the Shirley Gate Park area of George Mason, VA. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. 53% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,018
Renter share10.6%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate4.2%
Median income$145,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across George Mason and the region
Centroid at 38.8454, -77.3318 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley Gate Park scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from George Mason
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.2% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,215 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from George Mason
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from George Mason
4.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from George Mason
5.0
How Shirley Gate Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 45%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 49Total filings over 4 yrs
- 19.38%Avg annual filing rate
- 35.9%Peak (2012)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 40% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.8%Food insecurity
- 5.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 22.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shirley Gate Park
Cost burden runs 67% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Average gross rent is $1,215, 50% below the George Mason average.
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.1/10.
SNAP participation runs 5.4% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.8% against 17.8% nationally.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 49 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 35.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 19.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 11% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.8/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059440600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059440600?
Census tract 51059440600 in the Shirley Gate Park neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059440600?
Median gross rent is $1,215/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059440600?
4.2% of residents in tract 51059440600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,168.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059440600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 39th, minority 69th, housing 45th.
Q5
Is tract 51059440600 considered part of Shirley Gate Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059440600 fall within Shirley Gate Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059440600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 49 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059440600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.38% of renter households, peaking at 35.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059440600 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059440600 compare to George Mason overall?
Tract 51059440600 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of George Mason at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from George Mason; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in George Mason
Top eight tracts in George Mason ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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