Shirley Gate Park Eviction Risk: Lower , George Mason
Tract 51059440600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,168 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51059440600 runs through Shirley Gate Park in George Mason. With 3,168 residents, it scores 5.6/10 for landlords. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 67% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 53% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,215 monthly, set against $145,000 in average yearly household income, roughly 10% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across George Mason and the region
Centroid at 38.8454, -77.3318 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley Gate Park scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Shirley Gate Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 45%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 49Total filings over 4 yrs
- 19.38%Avg annual filing rate
- 35.9%Peak (2012)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.8%Food insecurity
- 5.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 22.3%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Shirley Gate Park
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from George Mason, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
About tract 51059440600
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059440600?
What is the average rent in tract 51059440600?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059440600?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059440600?
Is tract 51059440600 considered part of Shirley Gate Park?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059440600?
What share of households in tract 51059440600 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51059440600 compare to George Mason overall?
Highest-risk tracts in George Mason
Top eight tracts in George Mason ranked by composite eviction-risk score.