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Neighborhood · George Mason, VA

Shirley Gate Park Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 3,168 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.7/10 · range 3.7–3.7

Shirley Gate Park maps to a single census tract in George Mason, VA, population 3,168. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3.7/10, in the Lower tier. Severe burden reaches 53%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

Against a George Mason baseline of 29.9%, 67% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. At $1,215 a month, rents sit 50% under what the rest of George Mason commands. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1/10.

Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 1.1/10. The filing record is not thin: 49 evictions logged in this tract. SNAP participation is 5.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 8.8% of adults, 9.0 points below the national rate. The worst year on record was 2012, when filings touched 35.9% of renter households.

Sitting well above the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure at 7/10. The most recent observed rate, 10.3% in 2016, is well off that peak.

At 11% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. Against average income of $145,000, annual rent is only 10%, a wide affordability cushion.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 3.7/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Shirley Gate Park vs George Mason How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
66.7% +123%
George Mason: 29.9%
Average gross rent
$1,215 -50%
George Mason: $2,426
Average HH income
$145,000 -6%
George Mason: $154,479
Poverty rate
4.2% -14%
George Mason: 4.9%
Renter share
10.6% -44%
George Mason: 19.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Shirley Gate Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 3.7–3.7

Why Shirley Gate Park scores 3.7

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts
7.2
Rent control risk
67% of income on rent · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
11% renter households · Range 4.7–4.7 across tracts
4.7
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts
5.0
Economic stress
4.2% below poverty line · Range 1.1–1.1 across tracts
1.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Risk score comparison

Shirley Gate Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Shirley Gate Park score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Shirley Gate Park: 3.73.7Shirley Gate ParkNeighborhoodParent city: 4.24.2Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Shirley Gate Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059440600 3.7 3,168 67% $1,215
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 42

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 34%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 39%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 69%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 45%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Shirley Gate Park

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 49Total filings (sum)
  • 19.38%Avg annual filing rate
  • 35.9%Peak year (2012)
  • 10.34%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shirley Gate Park

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Shirley Gate Park

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Shirley Gate Park?

Shirley Gate Park scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Shirley Gate Park compare to George Mason overall?

Shirley Gate Park scores 0.5 points lower than George Mason overall (4.2/10). Renters spend 67% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,215 vs $2,426.
Q3

What is the average rent in Shirley Gate Park?

Average gross rent in Shirley Gate Park is $1,215/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Shirley Gate Park residents are renters?

11% of Shirley Gate Park households are renter-occupied (vs 19% in George Mason). The neighborhood has 3,168 residents.
Q5

Is Shirley Gate Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Shirley Gate Park sits in the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Shirley Gate Park for landlords?

Shirley Gate Park carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.7/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to George Mason as a whole (4.2/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Shirley Gate Park?

Shirley Gate Park has 3,074 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (45.3%), Hispanic / Latino (25.7%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (23.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Shirley Gate Park

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside George Mason

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Shirley Gate Park.

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