Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally
Ridings at Blue Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Chantilly
Tract 51059490104 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,760 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51059490104 in the Ridings at Blue Springs area of Chantilly ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,760 residents. It lands near the 55th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 47% of renter households, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,810 a month against an average household income of $124,722 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 16% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,006
Renter share15.5%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate6.2%
Median income$124,722
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
19
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chantilly and the region
Centroid at 38.9020, -77.4636 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ridings at Blue Springs scores 1.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chantilly
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.2% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,810 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chantilly
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chantilly
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chantilly
4.7
How Ridings at Blue Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 8.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 13.2%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 25.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ridings at Blue Springs
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 5.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chantilly eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059490104
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059490104?
Census tract 51059490104 in the Ridings at Blue Springs neighborhood scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059490104?
Median gross rent is $1,810/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059490104?
6.2% of residents in tract 51059490104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,760.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059490104?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 74th, minority 75th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 51059490104 considered part of Ridings at Blue Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059490104 fall within Ridings at Blue Springs (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059490104 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059490104 compare to Chantilly overall?
Tract 51059490104 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Chantilly at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chantilly eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chantilly
Top eight tracts in Chantilly ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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