Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Valley View Eviction Risk: Moderate , Groveton
Tract 51059421400 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,740 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Here is how census tract 51059421400, in the Valley View area of Groveton, looks to a landlord: a 6.1/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 6,740. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 38% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,740 a month while the average household earns $82,021 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 77% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units2,242
Renter share76.8%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate24.4%
Median income$82,021
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Groveton and the region
Centroid at 38.7687, -77.0875 · click any tract to drill in
Why Valley View scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Groveton
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.4% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$1,740 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Groveton
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Groveton
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Groveton
6.1
How Valley View compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 88
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 904Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.59%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.8%Peak (2011)
- 245Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.7%Housing insecurity
- 12.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.7%Food insecurity
- 20.5%SNAP enrollment
- 12.7%Transit barriers
- 18.4%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 32.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Valley View
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Groveton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 904 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 10.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 12.8% of renter households in 2011.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059421400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421400?
Census tract 51059421400 in the Valley View neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059421400?
Median gross rent is $1,740/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421400?
24.4% of residents in tract 51059421400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,740.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 74th, minority 85th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51059421400 considered part of Valley View?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421400 fall within Valley View (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 904 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.59% of renter households, peaking at 12.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059421400 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059421400 compare to Groveton overall?
Tract 51059421400 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Groveton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Groveton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Groveton
Top eight tracts in Groveton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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