Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally
Blue Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower , Kings Park West
Tract 51059430202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,222 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Census tract 51059430202 runs through the Blue Oaks area of Kings Park West. With 5,222 residents, it scores 5.8/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 67% of US census tracts.
About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,120 a month while the average household earns $157,083 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. Renters make up 22% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,696
Renter share22.0%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate10.8%
Median income$157,083
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
25
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Kings Park West and the region
Centroid at 38.8168, -77.2865 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blue Oaks scores 1.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Kings Park West
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.8% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$2,120 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Kings Park West
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Kings Park West
3.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Kings Park West
6.5
How Blue Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 20%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 18Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.0%Peak (2013)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 25% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Blue Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.6%Food insecurity
- 6.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 13.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blue Oaks
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Kings Park West, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 18 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 1.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.0% of renter households in 2013.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430202?
Census tract 51059430202 in the Blue Oaks neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430202?
Median gross rent is $2,120/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430202?
10.8% of residents in tract 51059430202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,222.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 11th, minority 53th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430202 considered part of Blue Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430202 fall within Blue Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 18 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.63% of renter households, peaking at 3.0% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430202 compare to Kings Park West overall?
Tract 51059430202 scores 1.6/10, lower than the parent city of Kings Park West at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Kings Park West; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Kings Park West
Top eight tracts in Kings Park West ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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