Neighborhood · Lincolnia, VA

Bren Mar Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 5,831 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.5/10 · range 5.5–5.5

Bren Mar Park is a black-white neighborhood in Lincolnia with 1 census tract and a population of 5,831 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.5/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 30% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 20% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $2,151/month sits 0% higher than the Lincolnia citywide median ($2,141).

Risk score

5.5

Moderate

1 tracts · population-weighted

Bren Mar Park vs Lincolnia How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

30.3% -2%

Lincolnia: 30.9%

Average gross rent

$2,151 +0%

Lincolnia: $2,141

Average HH income

$165,156 +33%

Lincolnia: $123,835

Poverty rate

9.7% +15%

Lincolnia: 8.4%

Renter share

50.1% +16%

Lincolnia: 43.1%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bren Mar Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 5.5–5.5

Why Bren Mar Park scores 5.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 8.3–8.3 across tracts

8.3

Rent control risk

30% of income on rent · Range 6.1–6.1 across tracts

6.1

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–2.9 across tracts

2.9

Tenant organizing strength

50% renter households · Range 8.6–8.6 across tracts

8.6

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.4–5.4 across tracts

5.4

Economic stress

9.7% below poverty line · Range 2.4–2.4 across tracts

2.4

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts

4.3

Risk score comparison

Bren Mar Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Bren Mar Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51059452600	5.5	5,831	30%	$2,151

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 29

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 31%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 18%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 79%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 29%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Bren Mar Park

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

397Total filings (sum)
7.43%Avg annual filing rate
11.1%Peak year (2013)
7.09%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Bren Mar Park

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

10.4%Housing insecurity
6.5%Utility shutoff threat
11.3%Food insecurity
8.0%SNAP enrollment
8.0%No health insurance
22.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Bren Mar Park

What is the eviction-risk score for Bren Mar Park?

Bren Mar Park scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Bren Mar Park compare to Lincolnia overall?

Bren Mar Park scores 1.0 points lower than Lincolnia overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 30% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Median rent: $2,151 vs $2,141.

What is the average rent in Bren Mar Park?

Median gross rent in Bren Mar Park is $2,151/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Bren Mar Park residents are renters?

50% of Bren Mar Park households are renter-occupied (vs 43% in Lincolnia). The neighborhood has 5,831 residents.

Is Bren Mar Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Bren Mar Park sits in the 29th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Bren Mar Park for landlords?

Bren Mar Park carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Lincolnia as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Bren Mar Park?

Bren Mar Park has 5,841 residents (Black-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (32.6%), White (non-Hispanic) (29.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (14.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Bren Mar Park

5.0 Oakwood 2 tracts · pop 5,256 5.2 Pinecrest 3 tracts · pop 11,849 4.5 Guilford 2 tracts · pop 5,582 5.7 Walhaven 2 tracts · pop 12,020 6.1 Monticello Forest 2 tracts · pop 9,249 5.9 Windsor Knoll 2 tracts · pop 6,289

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Lincolnia

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Bren Mar Park.

6.2 Parklawn 1 tracts · pop 3,590 6.3 Lincolnia Park 1 tracts · pop 4,338

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