Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Canterwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Lowes Island
Tract 51107611208 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,798 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 3.5/10, tract 51107611208 in the Canterwood area of Lowes Island, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,798. The voucher gap is 35.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,560
Renter share8.3%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region
Centroid at 39.0572, -77.3506 · click any tract to drill in
Why Canterwood scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,123 rent vs county FMR
8.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
3.4
How Canterwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.40%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.4%Peak (2016)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.7%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.2%Food insecurity
- 3.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 19.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Canterwood
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.5/10. Food insecurity runs 6.2% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.8% against 15.2% nationally. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
The filing record is not thin: 3 evictions over 1 years of observation. Average gross rent is $3,123, 10% above the Lowes Island average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.4% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $250,001, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611208
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611208?
Census tract 51107611208 in the Canterwood neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611208?
Median gross rent is $3,123/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611208?
0.4% of residents in tract 51107611208 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,798.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611208?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 40th, minority 51th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611208 considered part of Canterwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611208 fall within Canterwood (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611208?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611208 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.40% of renter households, peaking at 2.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611208 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611208 compare to Lowes Island overall?
Tract 51107611208 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island
Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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