Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally
Canterwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Lowes Island
Tract 51107611208 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,798 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
In Canterwood in Lowes Island, census tract 51107611208 scores 5.1/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 35% of renter households, a high level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $3,123 monthly, set against $250,001 in average yearly household income, roughly 15% of income at the averages. About 8% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,560
Renter share8.3%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
11
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
4
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region
Centroid at 39.0572, -77.3506 · click any tract to drill in
Why Canterwood scores 1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,123 rent vs county FMR
8.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
3.4
How Canterwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.40%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.4%Peak (2016)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.7%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.2%Food insecurity
- 3.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 19.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Canterwood
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 8.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lowes Island, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 5.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 2.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 2.4% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611208
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611208?
Census tract 51107611208 in the Canterwood neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611208?
Median gross rent is $3,123/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611208?
0.4% of residents in tract 51107611208 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,798.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611208?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 40th, minority 51th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611208 considered part of Canterwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611208 fall within Canterwood (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611208?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611208 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.40% of renter households, peaking at 2.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611208 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611208 compare to Lowes Island overall?
Tract 51107611208 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island
Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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