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Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally

Seneca Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Lowes Island

Tract 51107611209 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,467 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 51107611209 covers the Seneca Green area of Lowes Island in Virginia. Home to 6,467 residents, it scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #47,040 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,668 monthly, set against $200,717 in average yearly household income, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 11% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 7% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units2,234
Renter share11.3%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate0.9%
Median income$200,717

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Seneca Green
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Lowes Island
Very Low
Within county
26 th percentile
Rank, 26th percentileLowHigh
#56 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Low
Within state
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#2,104 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region

Centroid at 39.0393, -77.3515 · click any tract to drill in

Why Seneca Green scores 1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,668 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
3.4

How Seneca Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Seneca Green risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.01.0This tracttract 611209Lowes Island: 3.33.3Lowes Islandparent cityCounty: 1.31.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 7Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.36%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2016)
  • 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Seneca Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Seneca Green

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 6.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lowes Island, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 13th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.4% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611209

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611209?

Census tract 51107611209 in the Seneca Green neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611209?

Median gross rent is $2,668/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611209?

0.9% of residents in tract 51107611209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,467.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611209?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 46th, minority 53th, housing 9th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611209 considered part of Seneca Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611209 fall within Seneca Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611209?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.36% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611209 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611209 compare to Lowes Island overall?

Tract 51107611209 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island

Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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