Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Oak Grove
Tract 51107611702 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 2,533 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 51107611702 sits in the Herndon Heights area of Oak Grove, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.8/10. It is home to 2,533 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units756
Renter share43.3%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate0.8%
Median income$193,397
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
31
th percentile
Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oak Grove and the region
Centroid at 38.9834, -77.4155 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon Heights scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oak Grove
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,574 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oak Grove
2.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oak Grove
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oak Grove
2.0
How Herndon Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 7%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 25%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Herndon Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 7.4%No health insurance
- 12.1%Frequent mental distress
- 18.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Herndon Heights
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 29% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 2/10.
SNAP participation runs 4.6% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally.
On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.2/10.
Against average income of $193,397, annual rent is just 16%. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $2,574, close to the Oak Grove average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611702?
Census tract 51107611702 in the Herndon Heights neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611702?
Median gross rent is $2,574/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611702?
0.8% of residents in tract 51107611702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,533.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 7th, minority 77th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611702 considered part of Herndon Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611702 fall within Herndon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611702 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611702 compare to Oak Grove overall?
Tract 51107611702 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Oak Grove at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oak Grove; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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