Skip to content
Neighborhood · Oak Grove, VA

Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 7,238 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.1/10 · range 3.8–4.2

Herndon Heights takes in 2 census tracts of Oak Grove, VA, population 7,238. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.1/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Against a Oak Grove baseline of 25.3%, 58% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1.2/10. The severe-burden share is 18%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. At $2,013 a month, rents sit 20% under what the rest of Oak Grove commands.

On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10. SNAP participation is 6.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Rent takes 16% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Its 2 tracts score within 0.4 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

32% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Herndon Heights vs Oak Grove How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
57.5% +127%
Oak Grove: 25.3%
Average gross rent
$2,013 -20%
Oak Grove: $2,519
Average HH income
$149,732 -23%
Oak Grove: $193,526
Poverty rate
3.7% +381%
Oak Grove: 0.8%
Renter share
31.6% -3%
Oak Grove: 32.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Herndon Heights and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 3.8–4.2

Why Herndon Heights scores 4.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts
6.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts
7.2
Rent control risk
58% of income on rent · Range 2.2–5.3 across tracts
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.6–2.8 across tracts
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
32% renter households · Range 5.6–8.6 across tracts
6.6
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.0–4.6 across tracts
3.7
Economic stress
3.7% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.3 across tracts
1.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.4–6.1 across tracts
3.7
Risk score comparison

Herndon Heights vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Herndon Heights score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Herndon Heights: 4.14.1Herndon HeightsNeighborhoodParent city: 4.04.0Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Herndon Heights

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51107611701 4.2 4,705 73% $1,711
51107611702 3.8 2,533 29% $2,574
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 36

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 37%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 36%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 72%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 29%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Herndon Heights

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Herndon Heights

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Herndon Heights?

Herndon Heights scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Herndon Heights compare to Oak Grove overall?

Herndon Heights scores 0.1 points higher than Oak Grove overall (4/10). Renters spend 58% of income on rent vs 25% citywide. Average rent: $2,013 vs $2,519.
Q3

What is the average rent in Herndon Heights?

Average gross rent in Herndon eviction risk Heights is $2,013/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Herndon Heights residents are renters?

32% of Herndon Heights households are renter-occupied (vs 33% in Oak Grove). The neighborhood has 7,238 residents.
Q5

Is Herndon Heights a high social-vulnerability area?

Herndon Heights sits in the 36th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Herndon Heights have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Herndon Heights is census tract 51107611701 (score 4.2/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.8 to 4.2, a spread of 0.4 points.
Q7

How safe is Herndon Heights for landlords?

Herndon eviction risk Heights carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Oak Grove as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Herndon Heights?

Herndon Heights has 7,381 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (40.3%), Hispanic / Latino (34.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (16.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Herndon Heights

Zoom out

Up the geography chain · or explore further