Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally

Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oak Grove

Tract 51107611701 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,705 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 51107611701 sits in the Herndon Heights area of Sterling eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.2/10. It is home to 4,705 residents. Against Loudoun County at 37.5%, 73% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 7% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,675
Renter share25.3%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$126,224

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Herndon Heights
Very High
Within parent city
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Oak Grove
Moderate
Within county
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#20 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Elevated
Within state
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#919 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Oak Grove and the region

Centroid at 38.9907, -77.4051 · click any tract to drill in

Why Herndon Heights scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Oak Grove
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,711 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oak Grove
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oak Grove
5.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oak Grove
4.6

How Herndon Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Herndon Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.24.2This tracttract 611701Oak Grove: 4.04.0Oak Groveparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 48

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Herndon Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Herndon Heights

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.3/10. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.4/10. Average gross rent is $1,711, 20% below the Sterling average. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.

On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 5.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $126,224, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Loudoun County average of 4.1 closely.

25% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611701

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611701?

Census tract 51107611701 in the Herndon Heights neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611701?

Median gross rent is $1,711/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611701?

5.3% of residents in tract 51107611701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,705.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 52th, minority 69th, housing 32th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611701 considered part of Herndon Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611701 fall within Herndon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51107611701 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51107611701 compare to Oak Grove overall?

Tract 51107611701 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Oak Grove at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oak Grove; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Oak Grove

Top eight tracts in Oak Grove ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related