Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,663 of 84,120 nationally
Valley Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Purcellville
Tract 51107610702 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,529 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51107610702 sits in the Valley Springs neighborhood of Purcellville, Virginia. It has a population of 7,529 and an eviction-risk score of 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). 41% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 26% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,252/month against a median household income of $154,182 — roughly 18% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units2,171
Renter share17.7%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate5.1%
Median income$154,182
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Purcellville and the region
Centroid at 39.1319, -77.6973 · click any tract to drill in
Why Valley Springs scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Purcellville
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.1% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,252 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Purcellville
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Purcellville
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Purcellville
5.7
How Valley Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 37%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 47%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 16Total filings over 1 yrs
- 3.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2016)
- 16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.1%Food insecurity
- 6.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.7%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 26.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51107610702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107610702?
Census tract 51107610702 in the Valley Springs neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107610702?
Median gross rent is $2,252/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107610702?
5.1% of residents in tract 51107610702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,529.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107610702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 28th, minority 43th, housing 47th.
Q5
Is tract 51107610702 considered part of Valley Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107610702 fall within Valley Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107610702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 16 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107610702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.91% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107610702 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107610702 compare to Purcellville overall?
Tract 51107610702 scores 5.5/10 — right in line with the parent city of Purcellville at 5.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Purcellville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Purcellville
Top eight tracts in Purcellville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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