Northside Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Blacksburg
Tract 51121020402 ·
Montgomery County, VA · pop 4,387 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51121020402 covers part of the Northside Park area of Blacksburg, VA, and scores 7.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Severe burden reaches 49%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%Stable renters 24%Owners 43%
Tract context
Occupied units1,535
Renter share56.4%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate55.1%
Median income$41,215
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Northside Park
Moderate
Within parent city
78th percentile
#3 of 10 tracts In Blacksburg
High
Within county
91th percentile
#3 of 23 tracts In Montgomery County
Very High
Within state
100th percentile
#5 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Blacksburg and the region
Centroid at 37.2555, -80.4225 · click any tract to drill in
Why Northside Park scores 7.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Blacksburg
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
55.1% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,389 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Blacksburg
9.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Blacksburg
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Blacksburg
9.5
How Northside Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
69%Socioeconomic
0%Household composition
31%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
13.6%Housing insecurity
10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
21.7%Food insecurity
19.4%SNAP enrollment
14.1%Transit barriers
9.9%No health insurance
22.9%Frequent mental distress
34.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Northside Park
58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Montgomery County average of 40.4%. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 55%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Against the Montgomery County average of 5.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.6 points. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.7/10.
Running hot, housing-court posture reads 9.5/10. Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $41,215, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The voucher gap is 12.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Nationally it ranks #9,433 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.5 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51121020402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51121020402?
Census tract 51121020402 in the Northside Park neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51121020402?
Median gross rent is $1,389/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51121020402?
55.1% of residents in tract 51121020402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,387.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51121020402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 0th, minority 31th, housing 81th.
Q5
Is tract 51121020402 considered part of Northside Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51121020402 fall within Northside Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51121020402 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51121020402 compare to Blacksburg overall?
Tract 51121020402 scores 7.7/10, higher than the parent city of Blacksburg at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Blacksburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Blacksburg
Top eight tracts in Blacksburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.