Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Country Roads Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall
Tract 51153901303 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,165 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51153901303 sits in the Country Roads area of Buckhall eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.6/10. The severe-burden share is 87%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,519
Renter share11.4%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate7.0%
Median income$185,972
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
51
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Buckhall and the region
Centroid at 38.7272, -77.4864 · click any tract to drill in
Why Country Roads scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.0% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$2,789 rent vs county FMR
7.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2
How Country Roads compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 1 yrs
- 21.28%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.3%Peak (2016)
- 10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 7.4%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Country Roads
Cost burden runs 93% here against 43.3% across Prince William County. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.8/10.
The voucher gap is 20.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally. Running hot, supply constraint reads 7.1/10.
Average gross rent is $2,789, 13% above the Buckhall average. The worst year on record was 2016, when 21.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 21.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 33% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901303
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901303?
Census tract 51153901303 in the Country Roads neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901303?
Median gross rent is $2,789/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 93% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901303?
7.0% of residents in tract 51153901303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,165.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901303?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 22th, minority 64th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901303 considered part of Country Roads?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901303 fall within Country Roads (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901303?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901303 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.28% of renter households, peaking at 21.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901303 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901303 compare to Buckhall overall?
Tract 51153901303 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall
Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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