Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,435 of 84,120 nationally
Iron Gate Eviction Risk: Moderate , Loch Lomond
Tract 51153901704 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,582 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Eviction risk in the Iron Gate area of Loch Lomond centers on tract 51153901704, which scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 6,582 residents. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 45% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,808 a month while the average household earns $89,821 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,969
Renter share61.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$89,821
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Loch Lomond and the region
Centroid at 38.7792, -77.4992 · click any tract to drill in
Why Iron Gate scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Loch Lomond
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,808 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Loch Lomond
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Loch Lomond
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Loch Lomond
6.5
How Iron Gate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 80%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Iron Gate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.4%Housing insecurity
- 9.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.4%Food insecurity
- 15.3%SNAP enrollment
- 11.0%Transit barriers
- 21.0%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Iron Gate
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Loch Lomond, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 18.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901704
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901704?
Census tract 51153901704 in the Iron Gate neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901704?
Median gross rent is $1,808/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901704?
10.5% of residents in tract 51153901704 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,582.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901704?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 80th, minority 90th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901704 considered part of Iron Gate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901704 fall within Iron Gate (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901704 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901704 compare to Loch Lomond overall?
Tract 51153901704 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Loch Lomond at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Loch Lomond; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Loch Lomond
Top eight tracts in Loch Lomond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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