Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Shockoe Bottom Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760020502 · Richmond city, VA · pop 2,741 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51760020502 is a census tract in the Shockoe Bottom area of Richmond, VA. It scores 4.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,741 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10.

Risk score

4.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 46% Owners 10%

Tract context

Occupied units2,126

Renter share90.0%

SVI overall0.28

Poverty rate15.9%

Median income$63,099

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.5344, -77.4225 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shockoe Bottom scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

15.9% poverty · this tract

4.0

Supply constraint

$1,391 rent vs county FMR

3.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How Shockoe Bottom compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 28

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

43%Socioeconomic
1%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
63%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
30%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.2%Housing insecurity
6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
12.0%Food insecurity
9.1%SNAP enrollment
8.1%Transit barriers
7.9%No health insurance
19.2%Frequent mental distress
24.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shockoe Bottom

90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.4/10.

The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.5/10. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Nationally it ranks #44,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for roughly one in two of renters. It tracks the Richmond City average of 4.3 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,391, close to the Richmond average. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $63,099.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760020502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760020502?

Census tract 51760020502 in the Shockoe Bottom neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760020502?

Median gross rent is $1,391/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760020502?

15.9% of residents in tract 51760020502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,741.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760020502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 1th, minority 62th, housing 63th.

Is tract 51760020502 considered part of Shockoe Bottom?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760020502 fall within Shockoe Bottom (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760020502 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760020502 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760020502 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51760020502 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 30% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.