Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Big Bethel Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bethel Manor
Tract 51199050208 · York County, VA · pop 2,095 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 51199050208 sits in the Big Bethel area of York County, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 2,095. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.5/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units881
Renter share70.7%
SVI overall0.42
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$70,994
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bethel Manor and the region
Centroid at 37.0971, -76.4113 · click any tract to drill in
Why Big Bethel scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bethel Manor
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,405 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bethel Manor
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bethel Manor
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bethel Manor
5.0
How Big Bethel compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 42
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 46%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Big Bethel. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.0%Food insecurity
- 8.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.2%Transit barriers
- 8.0%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Big Bethel
Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.3/10. This is renter territory: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Cost burden runs roughly one in two here against 42.6% across York County. Against the York County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.
That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.8/10. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Average gross rent runs $1,405 a month. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $70,994.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51199050208
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51199050208?
Census tract 51199050208 in the Big Bethel neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51199050208?
Median gross rent is $1,405/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51199050208?
5.0% of residents in tract 51199050208 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,095.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51199050208?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 41th, minority 72th, housing 46th.
Q5
Is tract 51199050208 considered part of Big Bethel?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51199050208 fall within Big Bethel (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51199050208 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51199050208 compare to Bethel Manor overall?
Tract 51199050208 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bethel Manor at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bethel Manor; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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