College Hills Eviction Risk: Elevated

96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The severe-burden share is 28%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 25%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 7/10.

Average gross rent is $1,175, 17% below the Madison average of $1,413. The filing record is not thin: 8 evictions logged in this tract.

Disability prevalence reaches 19.0% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 3/10. The worst year on record was 2007, when filings touched 0.3% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 0.1% in 2016, is well off that peak. That places it #1 of 61 neighborhoods in Madison.

One tract means one number: 6/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.