Chesterfield Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Little Rock

Annualized rent equals 44% of average household income of $35,750, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Housing insecurity runs 31.2% against 14.2% nationally.

Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. The voucher gap is 27.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The poverty rate is 29%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2/10. At $1,316 a month, rents run 19% over what the rest of Little Rock commands.

The severe-burden share is 9%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Pulaski County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10. Statewide the AR average is 3.8, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.