Little Rock Eviction Risk: Moderate

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2/10.

At $910 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Little Rock commands. The severe-burden share is 11%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

It sits 0.8 points above the Pulaski County average of 3.9. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the AR average is 3.8, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $48,796.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.