Moraga Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 30.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.8/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.1/10. At $3,501 a month, rents run 21% over what the rest of Moraga commands.

Against the Contra Costa County average of 6.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. 45% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Contra Costa County average of 48.7%. Housing insecurity runs 6.6% against 14.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 11% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $250,001, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.