Neighborhood · Ranked #1 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: High , San Diego

Tract 06073003902 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,282 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi

Census tract 06073003902 covers part of the Shelltown area of San Diego, CA, and scores 9.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,282. 45% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

9.9

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 57% Stable renters 24% Owners 19%

Tract context

Occupied units1,378

Renter share80.8%

SVI overall0.91

Poverty rate11.7%

Median income$53,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.6967, -117.1263 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 9.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

11.7% poverty · this tract

2.9

Supply constraint

$1,683 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Diego

8.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Diego

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

84%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
95%Racial/ethnic minority
79%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
100%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

27.5%Housing insecurity
12.2%Utility-shutoff threat
32.5%Food insecurity
28.3%SNAP enrollment
15.6%Transit barriers
22.1%No health insurance
19.4%Frequent mental distress
34.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

Against San Diego County at 52.5%, 70% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points.

81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $53,750, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. At $1,683 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of San Diego commands.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10. Housing insecurity runs 27.5% against 14.2% nationally.

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 22.1% against 11.3% nationally. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for San Diego. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073003902

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073003902?

Census tract 06073003902 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 9.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073003902?

Median gross rent is $1,683/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073003902?

11.7% of residents in tract 06073003902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,282.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073003902?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 88th, minority 95th, housing 79th.

Is tract 06073003902 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073003902 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073003902 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073003902 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073003902 scores 9.9/10, higher than the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 06073003902 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 100% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.