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Neighborhood · Ranked #1 of 84,120 nationally

Union Square Eviction Risk: High , San Francisco

Tract 06075012301 · San Francisco, CA · pop 1,901 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 9.9/10, tract 06075012301 in the Union Square area of San Francisco, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,901. 62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the San Francisco County average of 37.3%.

Risk score
9.9
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 60% Stable renters 38% Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units1,311
Renter share97.9%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate39.1%
Median income$24,284

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Union Square
Elevated
Within parent city
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 242 tracts In San Francisco
Very High
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#95 of 242 tracts In San Francisco
Elevated
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Francisco and the region

Centroid at 37.7859, -122.4107 · click any tract to drill in

Why Union Square scores 9.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Francisco
9.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
39.1% poverty · this tract
9.8
Supply constraint
$1,038 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Francisco
10.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
10.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Francisco
10.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Francisco
9.5

How Union Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Union Square risk score vs. parent city / county / state9.9This tracttract 0123019.9San Franciscoparent city9.5Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Union Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Union Square

The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 10/10. Average gross rent is $1,038, 58% below the San Francisco average.

Annualized rent equals 51% of average household income of $24,284, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 10/10.

This is renter territory: 98% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 10/10.

The poverty rate is 39%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Food insecurity runs 33.2% against 17.8% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Nationally it ranks #1 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06075012301

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06075012301?

Census tract 06075012301 in the Union Square neighborhood scores 9.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06075012301?

Median gross rent is $1,038/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06075012301?

39.1% of residents in tract 06075012301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,901.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06075012301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 78th, minority 80th, housing 100th.
Q5

Is tract 06075012301 considered part of Union Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06075012301 fall within Union Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06075012301 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06075012301 compare to San Francisco overall?

Tract 06075012301 scores 9.9/10, right in line with the parent city of San Francisco at 9.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Francisco eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Francisco

Top eight tracts in San Francisco ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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