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Census Tract · Ranked #5,690 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06077005109 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 3,493

Manteca is where census tract 06077005109 sits, home to 3,493 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.8/10. It lands near the 92nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

67% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,600 monthly, set against $57,128 in average yearly household income, roughly 34% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 17% Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,307
Renter share51.4%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate30.2%
Median income$57,128

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 18 tracts In Manteca
Very High
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#45 of 174 tracts In San Joaquin
Elevated
Within state
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#2,402 of 9,109 tracts In California
Elevated
National
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#5,690 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.7990, -121.2107 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Manteca
6.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
30.2% poverty · this tract
7.6
Supply constraint
$1,600 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manteca
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manteca
6.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manteca
6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Manteca risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.86.8This tracttract 005109Manteca: 8.18.1Mantecaparent cityCounty: 5.65.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.65.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 89

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

What moves this score most is economic stress at 7.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manteca, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the San Joaquin County average of 6.2 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 89th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005109

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005109?

Census tract 06077005109 in Manteca scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06077005109?

Median gross rent is $1,600/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005109?

30.2% of residents in tract 06077005109 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,493.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005109?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 87th, minority 69th, housing 93th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 06077005109 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 06077005109 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005109 scores 6.8/10, lower than the parent city of Manteca at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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