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Census Tract · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06077005123 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 4,242

06077005123 is a census tract in Manteca, CA. It scores 5.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,242 residents. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 22% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,384
Renter share50.9%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate8.4%
Median income$98,100

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#11 of 18 tracts In Manteca
Moderate
Within county
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#115 of 174 tracts In San Joaquin
Low
Within state
21 th percentile
Rank, 21st percentileLowHigh
#7,225 of 9,109 tracts In California
Low
National
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#19,618 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.8046, -121.2438 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Manteca
6.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
8.4% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,058 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manteca
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manteca
6.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manteca
6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Manteca risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.9This tracttract 0051236.5Mantecaparent city6.8Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.1/10. Cost burden runs 57% here against 47.9% across San Joaquin County.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. The voucher gap is 18.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

It sits 0.9 points below the San Joaquin County average of 6.8. On the high side, supply constraint reads 6.9/10.

On the national scale it lands near the 77th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.6 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $2,058, close to the Manteca average. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $98,100.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005123

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005123?

Census tract 06077005123 in Manteca scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06077005123?

Median gross rent is $2,058/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005123?

8.4% of residents in tract 06077005123 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,242.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005123?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 80th, minority 75th, housing 61th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 06077005123 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 06077005123 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005123 scores 5.9/10, lower than the parent city of Manteca at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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