Neighborhood · Ranked #5,730 of 84,120 nationally

Tanforan Eviction Risk: High , San Bruno

Tract 06081602202 · San Mateo, CA · pop 3,142 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

With a score of 8.4/10, tract 06081602202 in the Tanforan area of South San Francisco, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,142 residents. 30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

8.4

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 39% Owners 15%

Tract context

Occupied units1,219

Renter share85.1%

SVI overall0.72

Poverty rate11.9%

Median income$89,583

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Bruno and the region

Centroid at 37.6551, -122.4115 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tanforan scores 8.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Bruno

8.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.9

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

11.9% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$2,707 rent vs county FMR

3.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Bruno

6.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Bruno

8.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Bruno

5.3

How Tanforan compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

68%Socioeconomic
19%Household composition
92%Racial/ethnic minority
86%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tanforan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

19.9%Housing insecurity
9.5%Utility-shutoff threat
25.5%Food insecurity
20.4%SNAP enrollment
12.1%Transit barriers
16.4%No health insurance
16.6%Frequent mental distress
31.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tanforan

This is renter territory: 85% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Pulling hardest the other way is court filing pressure at 1.4/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $89,583 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Against San Mateo County at 44.9%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.1/10.

It sits 1.4 points above the San Mateo County average of 7.0. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. Food insecurity runs 25.5% against 17.8% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 93rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $2,707, close to the South San Francisco average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06081602202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06081602202?

Census tract 06081602202 in the Tanforan neighborhood scores 8.4/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06081602202?

Median gross rent is $2,707/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06081602202?

11.9% of residents in tract 06081602202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,142.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06081602202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 19th, minority 92th, housing 86th.

Is tract 06081602202 considered part of Tanforan?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06081602202 fall within Tanforan (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06081602202 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06081602202 compare to San Bruno overall?

Tract 06081602202 scores 8.4/10, higher than the parent city of San Bruno at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Bruno; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Bruno

Top eight tracts in San Bruno ranked by composite eviction-risk score.