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Neighborhood · Santa Barbara, CA

The Mesa Eviction Risk: Elevated

3 census tracts · pop 11,391 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.5/10 · range 6.4–8

The Mesa is a 3-tract neighborhood of Santa Barbara, CA, population 11,391. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 7.5/10, Elevated tier. Against a Santa Barbara baseline of 33.4%, 58% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

37% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 6.4 to 8, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk.

Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.7/10. At $2,731 a month, rents sit 13% over what the rest of Santa Barbara commands. On the high side is housing-court posture at 7/10.

That places it #5 of 7 neighborhoods in Santa Barbara. The closest comparables inside the same city are Westside and Upper State. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $128,937.

46% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.5 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
7.5
Elevated
3 tracts · population-weighted
The Mesa vs Santa Barbara How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
58.0% +74%
Santa Barbara: 33.4%
Average gross rent
$2,731 +13%
Santa Barbara: $2,413
Average HH income
$128,937 +27%
Santa Barbara: $101,672
Poverty rate
13.9% +6%
Santa Barbara: 13.1%
Renter share
46.4% -23%
Santa Barbara: 60.1%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across The Mesa and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 6.4–8

Why The Mesa scores 7.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.6–6.6 across tracts
6.6
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.9–6.9 across tracts
6.9
Rent control risk
58% of income on rent · Range 7.7–7.7 across tracts
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
46% renter households · Range 9.6–9.6 across tracts
9.6
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Economic stress
13.9% below poverty line · Range 1.0–4.9 across tracts
3.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.4–4.8 across tracts
4.0
Risk score comparison

The Mesa vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

The Mesa score vs. parent city, state, U.S.7.5The MesaNeighborhood7.8Parent cityhost city7.6Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in The Mesa?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.6 points from 6.4 to 8. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in The Mesa

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
06083001203 8 3,535 50% $2,662
06083001208 7.9 4,206 60% $2,954
06083001308 6.4 3,650 64% $2,540
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 48

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 47%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 35%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 38%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 61%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in The Mesa

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About The Mesa

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for The Mesa?

The Mesa scores 7.5/10 (Elevated tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does The Mesa compare to Santa Barbara overall?

The Mesa scores 0.3 points lower than Santa Barbara overall (7.8/10). Renters spend 58% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $2,731 vs $2,413.
Q3

What is the average rent in The Mesa?

Average gross rent in The Mesa is $2,731/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of The Mesa residents are renters?

46% of The Mesa households are renter-occupied (vs 60% in Santa Barbara). The neighborhood has 11,391 residents.
Q5

Is The Mesa a high social-vulnerability area?

The Mesa sits in the 48th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in The Mesa have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in The Mesa is census tract 06083001203 (score 8/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.4 to 8, a spread of 1.6 points.
Q7

How safe is The Mesa for landlords?

The Mesa carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.5/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Santa Barbara as a whole (7.8/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of The Mesa?

The Mesa has 11,137 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (73%), Hispanic / Latino (17.6%), Other / Multiracial (5.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near The Mesa

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Santa Barbara

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to The Mesa.

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