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Neighborhood · Ranked #31,159 of 84,120 nationally

Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens

Tract 12081000201 · Manatee, FL · pop 4,880 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Here is how census tract 12081000201, in the Casa Loma area of Bayshore Gardens, looks to a landlord: a 4.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 4,880. That is riskier than about 36% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 33% of renter households, a high level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,124 monthly, set against $44,831 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 26% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 17% Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units2,187
Renter share25.7%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate16.7%
Median income$44,831

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 8 tracts In Casa Loma
High
Within parent city
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Bayshore Gardens
Moderate
Within county
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 93 tracts In Manatee
High
Within state
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#989 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region

Centroid at 27.4550, -82.5692 · click any tract to drill in

Why Casa Loma scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.7% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,124 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
8.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.5

How Casa Loma compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Casa Loma risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 000201Bayshore Gardens: 2.72.7Bayshore Gardensparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 99Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 6.22%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.9%Peak (2016)
  • 32Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 120810002012002: 15 filings (5.59/100 renter HHs)2003: 21 filings (7.82/100 renter HHs)2015: 31 filings (6.54/100 renter HHs)2016: 32 filings (4.93/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 113% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bayshore Gardens, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Manatee County average of 5.0 and in line with the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 99 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 6.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.9% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081000201

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000201?

Census tract 12081000201 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081000201?

Median gross rent is $1,124/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000201?

16.7% of residents in tract 12081000201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,880.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 76th, household 79th, minority 46th, housing 79th.
Q5

Is tract 12081000201 considered part of Casa Loma?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000201 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000201?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 99 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 12081000201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.22% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 12081000201 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?

Tract 12081000201 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens

Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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