Julington Creek Eviction Risk: Lower

Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1.1/10. The severe-burden share is 26%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.5/10.

The voucher gap is 23.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Filings are well documented here: 18 across 2 observed tracts.

Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.3/10. The worst year on record was 2008, when filings touched 7.2% of renter households. Average gross rent is $2,137, 9% below the Fruit Cove average of $2,336.

The most recent observed rate, 0.4% in 2018, is well off that peak. At 23% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.

Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

With little internal variation, 3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.