Marycrest Catle Dargan Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 40.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Severe burden reaches 29%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is supply constraint at 9/10. Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.4 to 5.9, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 2/10.

Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.8/10. 41% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, under the Country Club Hills rate of 46.6%. Court records for this tract carry 353 eviction filings.

Filing activity peaked in 2015 at 10.2% of renter households. Judgments average 2.5% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.8 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.