Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Census Tract · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Machesney Park Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 17201000101 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 4,650
17201000101 is a census tract in Machesney Park, IL. It scores 4.4/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,633
Renter share23.1%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate15.8%
Median income$62,940
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
52
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
42
th percentile
Moderate
National
49
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3530, -89.0508 · click any tract to drill in
Why Machesney Park scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
15.8% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,064 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Machesney Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 21
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 20%Household composition
- 18%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 10%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.7%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.9%Food insecurity
- 15.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.4%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 18.6%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Machesney Park
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 23% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.9/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 41% of renters. It tracks the Winnebago County average of 4.3 closely. Average gross rent is $1,064, close to the Machesney Park average.
Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $62,940.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201000101
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000101?
Census tract 17201000101 in Machesney Park scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201000101?
Median gross rent is $1,064/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000101?
15.8% of residents in tract 17201000101 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,650.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000101?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 20th, minority 18th, housing 16th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 17201000101 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 17201000101 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201000101 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 17201000101 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 10% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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