Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Machesney Park Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 17201000103 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 2,487 · 86% of tract blocks fall in Machesney Park
Census tract 17201000103 covers part of Machesney Park, IL, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs roughly one in three here against 44.4% across Winnebago County.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units972
Renter share31.5%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate16.5%
Median income$56,210
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
54
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3330, -89.0515 · click any tract to drill in
Why Machesney Park scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
16.5% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$908 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Machesney Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 26%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 40%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.5%Housing insecurity
- 10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.5%Food insecurity
- 21.4%SNAP enrollment
- 10.6%Transit barriers
- 10.7%No health insurance
- 20.7%Frequent mental distress
- 36.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Machesney Park
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 2.7/10. Average gross rent is $908, 18% below the Machesney Park average.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Winnebago County average of 4.3 closely. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $56,210.
31% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201000103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000103?
Census tract 17201000103 in Machesney Park scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201000103?
Median gross rent is $908/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000103?
16.5% of residents in tract 17201000103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,487.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 19th, minority 26th, housing 39th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 17201000103 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 17201000103 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201000103 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q7
Was tract 17201000103 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 40% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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