Census Tract · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally

Machesney Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 17201000103 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 2,487 · 86% of tract blocks fall in Machesney Park

Census tract 17201000103 belongs to Machesney Park, Illinois. It is home to 2,487 residents and scores 5.1/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than about 43% of US census tracts.

33% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 3% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $908 a month while the average household earns $56,210 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 21% Owners 69%

Tract context

Occupied units972

Renter share31.5%

SVI overall0.38

Poverty rate16.5%

Median income$56,210

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region

Centroid at 42.3330, -89.0515 · click any tract to drill in

Why Machesney Park scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Machesney Park

5.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

16.5% poverty · this tract

4.1

Supply constraint

$908 rent vs county FMR

2.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Machesney Park

4.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Machesney Park

4.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Machesney Park

5.5

How Machesney Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 38

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

57%Socioeconomic
19%Household composition
26%Racial/ethnic minority
39%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
40%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.5%Housing insecurity
10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
20.5%Food insecurity
21.4%SNAP enrollment
10.6%Transit barriers
10.7%No health insurance
20.7%Frequent mental distress
36.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Machesney Park

The heaviest input here is housing court bias at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Machesney Park, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Winnebago County average of 5.0 and below the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 38th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201000103

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000103?

Census tract 17201000103 in Machesney Park scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201000103?

Median gross rent is $908/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000103?

16.5% of residents in tract 17201000103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,487.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 19th, minority 26th, housing 39th.

What share of households in tract 17201000103 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201000103 compare to Machesney Park overall?

Tract 17201000103 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201000103 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 40% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park

Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.