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Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

North Vale Eviction Risk: Moderate , Rockford

Tract 17201000502 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 4,100 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Tract 17201000502 sits in the North Vale area of Rockford eviction risk, IL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.7/10. It is home to 4,100 residents. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 22% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,582
Renter share43.1%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate18.5%
Median income$58,390

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In North Vale
Very High
Within parent city
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#31 of 54 tracts In Rockford
Moderate
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#35 of 80 tracts In Winnebago County
Elevated
Within state
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#1,736 of 3,263 tracts In Illinois
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2590, -89.0137 · click any tract to drill in

Why North Vale scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Rockford
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
18.5% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,071 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Rockford
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Rockford
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Rockford
3.5

How North Vale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
North Vale risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.7This tracttract 0005024.0Rockfordparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county5.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 94

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within North Vale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in North Vale

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 2/10. SNAP participation runs 27.4% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10. Food insecurity runs 26.7% against 17.8% nationally. 49% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Winnebago County average of 44.4%.

Average gross rent is $1,071, 9% above the Rockford average. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

The legal-climate inputs (statute speed, court posture, rent-regulation exposure) come from Rockford as a whole. Only the economic and supply signals are measured inside this tract. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201000502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000502?

Census tract 17201000502 in the North Vale neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 17201000502?

Median gross rent is $1,071/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000502?

18.5% of residents in tract 17201000502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,100.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 88th, minority 64th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 17201000502 considered part of North Vale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201000502 fall within North Vale (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 17201000502 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 17201000502 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201000502 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 17201000502 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 5% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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