Manchester Eviction Risk: Elevated

Against a Dundalk baseline of 35.9%, 83% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 8.4/10.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 1.7/10. On the high side is housing-court posture at 8.1/10.

The poverty rate is 23%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 24.7% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

18.0% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Average gross rent is $1,313, 11% below the Dundalk average of $1,473. Among the 16 mapped neighborhoods of Dundalk, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Graceland and Saint Helena. Social vulnerability runs high at 9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

49% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

One tract means one number: 7.8/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.