Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally

Manchester Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dundalk

Tract 24005420701 · Baltimore County, MD · pop 3,227 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 24005420701, home to 3,227 residents in the Manchester area of Dundalk, scores 7.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That ranks it in the top 1% of US census tracts for landlord eviction risk, among the very hardest places in the country to operate.

83% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 64% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,313 monthly, set against $40,875 in average yearly household income, roughly 39% of income at the averages. About 49% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

6.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 8% Owners 51%

Tract context

Occupied units1,321

Renter share49.1%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate22.9%

Median income$40,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dundalk and the region

Centroid at 39.2772, -76.5138 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manchester scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dundalk

8.9

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Maryland legislature & governorship

5.7

Economic stress

22.9% poverty · this tract

5.7

Supply constraint

$1,313 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dundalk

8.4

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dundalk

7.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dundalk

8.1

How Manchester compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

80%Socioeconomic
100%Household composition
55%Racial/ethnic minority
52%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

24.7%Housing insecurity
16.3%Utility-shutoff threat
34.1%Food insecurity
32.1%SNAP enrollment
16.3%Transit barriers
18.0%No health insurance
22.3%Frequent mental distress
39.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manchester

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dundalk eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Baltimore County average of 6.7 and above the Maryland statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 24.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 24005420701

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24005420701?

Census tract 24005420701 in the Manchester neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 24005420701?

Median gross rent is $1,313/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 24005420701?

22.9% of residents in tract 24005420701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,227.

How socially vulnerable is tract 24005420701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 100th, minority 55th, housing 52th.

Is tract 24005420701 considered part of Manchester?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24005420701 fall within Manchester (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 24005420701 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 24005420701 compare to Dundalk overall?

Tract 24005420701 scores 6.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Dundalk at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dundalk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 24005420701 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dundalk

Top eight tracts in Dundalk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.