Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,043 of 84,120 nationally

Manchester Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dundalk

Tract 24005420701 · Baltimore County, MD · pop 3,227 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 7.8/10, tract 24005420701 in the Manchester area of Dundalk, MD reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,227 residents. Severe burden reaches 64%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
7.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41% Stable renters 8% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,321
Renter share49.1%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$40,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Manchester
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 21 tracts In Dundalk
Very High
Within county
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#18 of 219 tracts In Baltimore County
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#126 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dundalk and the region

Centroid at 39.2772, -76.5138 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manchester scores 7.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dundalk
8.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,313 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dundalk
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dundalk
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dundalk
8.1

How Manchester compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Manchester risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.8This tracttract 4207016.4Dundalkparent city5.7Countyavg tract in county5.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manchester

Cost burden runs 83% here against 46.8% across Baltimore County. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 10/10.

Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $40,875, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.9/10.

It sits 2.1 points above the Baltimore County average of 5.7. SNAP participation runs 32.1% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10.

The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Housing insecurity runs 24.7% against 14.2% nationally.

At $1,313 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Dundalk commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 89th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 24005420701

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24005420701?

Census tract 24005420701 in the Manchester neighborhood scores 7.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 24005420701?

Median gross rent is $1,313/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 24005420701?

22.9% of residents in tract 24005420701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,227.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 24005420701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 100th, minority 55th, housing 52th.
Q5

Is tract 24005420701 considered part of Manchester?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24005420701 fall within Manchester (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 24005420701 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 24005420701 compare to Dundalk overall?

Tract 24005420701 scores 7.8/10, higher than the parent city of Dundalk at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dundalk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 24005420701 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dundalk

Top eight tracts in Dundalk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related