Orvis Road Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 8/10. 14% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.2/10. Court records carry 140 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

29% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, above the Arlington rate of 24.0%. Food insecurity affects 6.6% of adults, 11.2 points below the national rate. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 7.1% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 1.6% of renter households. That places it #3 of 4 neighborhoods in Arlington. Judgments average 0.7% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Kensington Park Historic District and Arlington Heights score within a fraction of it. Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.

Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Its 2 tracts score within 0.1 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

With little internal variation, 5.4/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.