Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally

Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , Worcester

Tract 25027730901 · Worcester County, MA · pop 3,857 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 6.5/10, tract 25027730901 in the Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District area of Worcester, MA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,857. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

6.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 12% Stable renters 19% Owners 69%

Tract context

Occupied units1,583

Renter share30.8%

SVI overall0.53

Poverty rate9.8%

Median income$100,402

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Worcester and the region

Centroid at 42.2703, -71.8354 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District scores 6.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Worcester

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.9

State political climate

Massachusetts legislature & governorship

6.2

Economic stress

9.8% poverty · this tract

2.5

Supply constraint

$1,649 rent vs county FMR

3.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Worcester

6.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Worcester

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Worcester

7.0

How Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

31%Socioeconomic
72%Household composition
30%Racial/ethnic minority
75%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

12Total filings over 1 yrs
2.52%Avg annual filing rate
2.5%Peak (2015)
12Filings in 2015 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.5%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility-shutoff threat
9.4%Food insecurity
10.8%SNAP enrollment
6.2%Transit barriers
3.9%No health insurance
15.7%Frequent mental distress
26.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District

The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.5/10. Cost burden runs 38% here against 44.4% across Worcester County. Running hot, local political climate reads 7/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 12 filings here across 1 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 7/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 3.9% against 11.3% nationally. It sits 0.7 points above the Worcester County average of 5.8.

Average gross rent is $1,649, 11% above the Worcester average. The worst year on record was 2015, when 2.5% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 2.5% of renter households face a filing.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 25027730901

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25027730901?

Census tract 25027730901 in the Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 25027730901?

Median gross rent is $1,649/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 25027730901?

9.8% of residents in tract 25027730901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,857.

How socially vulnerable is tract 25027730901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 31th, household 72th, minority 30th, housing 75th.

Is tract 25027730901 considered part of Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25027730901 fall within Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25027730901?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 25027730901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.52% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 25027730901 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 25027730901 compare to Worcester overall?

Tract 25027730901 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Worcester at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Worcester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Worcester

Top eight tracts in Worcester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org