Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated
1 census tracts · pop 3,857 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.5/10
· range 6.5–6.5
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District maps to a single census tract in Worcester, MA and houses 3,857 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 6.5/10, placing it in the Elevated tier. 28% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
The clearest offset is economic stress, at 2.5/10. 38% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, above the Worcester rate of 32.0%.
The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions logged in this tract. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7/10. 3.9% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.
The worst year on record was 2015, when filings touched 2.5% of renter households. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7/10. At $1,649 a month, rents sit 11% over what the rest of Worcester commands.
Food insecurity affects 9.4% of adults, 8.4 points below the national rate. That places it #14 of 17 neighborhoods in Worcester.
Judgments average 0.8% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Rent takes 20% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.
One tract means one number: 6.5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
1 tracts · population-weighted
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District vs WorcesterHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority30%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport75%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
12Total filings (sum)
2.52%Avg annual filing rate
2.5%Peak year (2015)
2.52%Latest filed (2015)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
8.5%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility shutoff threat
9.4%Food insecurity
10.8%SNAP enrollment
3.9%No health insurance
26.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District?
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District compare to Worcester overall?
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District scores 0.1 points lower than Worcester overall (6.6/10). Renters spend 38% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,649 vs $1,487.
Q3
What is the average rent in Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District?
Average gross rent in Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District is $1,649/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District residents are renters?
31% of Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District households are renter-occupied (vs 57% in Worcester). The neighborhood has 3,857 residents.
Q5
Is Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District a high social-vulnerability area?
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District sits in the 54th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District for landlords?
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Worcester as a whole (6.6/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District?
Lincoln Estate-Elm Park Historic District has 3,926 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (83.1%), Hispanic / Latino (8.7%), Other / Multiracial (3.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby
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