Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
Lafayette Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Louis
Tract 29510123200 · St. Louis city, MO · pop 2,878 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 29510123200 covers part of the Lafayette Square area of St. Louis, MO, and scores 4.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,878 residents. The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,540
Renter share50.0%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$78,421
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Low
Within county
40
th percentile
Low
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Louis and the region
Centroid at 38.6133, -90.2138 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lafayette Square scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Louis
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$978 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Louis
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Louis
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Louis
5.0
How Lafayette Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 10%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 14%Grade C
- 86%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 441Total filings over 13 yrs
- 4.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.7%Peak (2004)
- 23Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 56% over the past 13 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 226Total filings 2020-21
- 2.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.19×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.8%Housing insecurity
- 11.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 11.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 30.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lafayette Square
The score leans hardest on regional political climate at 8.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.
The poverty rate is 23%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 441 eviction filings across 13 observed years. The worst year on record was 2004, when 8.7% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Louis. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 4.8% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.1/10.
Against average income of $78,421, annual rent is just 15%. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 29510123200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29510123200?
Census tract 29510123200 in the Lafayette Square neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29510123200?
Median gross rent is $978/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29510123200?
22.9% of residents in tract 29510123200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,878.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29510123200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 10th, minority 58th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 29510123200 considered part of Lafayette Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29510123200 fall within Lafayette Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29510123200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 441 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 29510123200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.84% of renter households, peaking at 8.7% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29510123200 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.19× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29510123200 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29510123200 compare to St. Louis overall?
Tract 29510123200 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of St. Louis at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29510123200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 86% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Louis
Top eight tracts in St. Louis ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MO
Wells Goodfellow
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Penrose
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Columbus Square
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Old North Saint Louis
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Academy
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Vandeventer
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Mount Pleasant
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Covenant Blu Grand Center
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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