Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Shore Eviction Risk: Moderate , Seaside Heights
Tract 34029723500 · Ocean County, NJ · pop 2,722 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 34029723500 sits in the Bay Shore area of Toms River eviction risk, NJ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. 38% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Ocean County average of 50.5%.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units1,253
Renter share21.1%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate10.9%
Median income$86,625
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
79
th percentile
High
Within county
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
32
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Seaside Heights and the region
Centroid at 39.9447, -74.1218 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Shore scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Seaside Heights
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
10.9% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,750 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Seaside Heights
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Seaside Heights
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Seaside Heights
5.3
How Bay Shore compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 33%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 34%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 161Total filings over 6 yrs
- 12.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.6%Peak (2016)
- 23Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 6 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bay Shore. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.4%Housing insecurity
- 6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.5%Food insecurity
- 6.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 8.8%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 24.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Shore
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.7/10. 22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.7/10.
Princeton eviction risk's Eviction Lab logged 161 filings here across 6 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 6.9% against 15.2% nationally. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 6.9/10.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 21.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 12.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 21% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34029723500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34029723500?
Census tract 34029723500 in the Bay Shore neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34029723500?
Median gross rent is $1,750/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34029723500?
10.9% of residents in tract 34029723500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,722.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34029723500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 25th, minority 34th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 34029723500 considered part of Bay Shore?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34029723500 fall within Bay Shore (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34029723500?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 161 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 34029723500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.55% of renter households, peaking at 21.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34029723500 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34029723500 compare to Seaside Heights overall?
Tract 34029723500 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of Seaside Heights at 7.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Seaside Heights; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Seaside Heights
Top eight tracts in Seaside Heights ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
Four Seasons
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Island Beach Heights
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Eagle Trace
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
34029722001
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
The Landings
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Chestnut Run
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Maple Shade
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Oak Ridge
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
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