East Harlem Eviction Risk: High , New York

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $38,418, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 33%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. At $1,265 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of New York commands.

On the high side, economic stress reads 8.3/10. Housing insecurity runs 27.8% against 14.2% nationally. Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10.

Against the New York County average of 9.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 5,088 evictions over 7 years of observation.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2003 at 36.6% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 34.5% of renter households face a filing.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.