Birchwood at Jericho Eviction Risk: Elevated

The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The voucher gap is 35.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10.

At $3,501 a month, rents run 32% over what the rest of Jericho commands. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.5/10.

Housing insecurity runs 6.1% against 14.2% nationally. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.5% against 11.3% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 82nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.