Birchwood at Jericho Eviction Risk: Elevated

100% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Nassau County average of 44.5%. The voucher gap is 35.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 32% above the Jericho average.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 8.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 18.4% against 31.5% nationally. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.3% against 11.3% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 81% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 3% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 4.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.3 points cooler.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Nassau County average of 6.5 closely.

Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $220,473.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.