Elmwood Eviction Risk: High , Syracuse

The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. It sits 1.4 points above the Onondaga County average of 6.6.

The score leans hardest on state political climate at 7.3/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.7/10.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #7,836 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $70,000, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,021, close to the Syracuse average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.