Southwest Eviction Risk: High , Syracuse

At $426 a month, rents run 59% under what the rest of Syracuse commands. SNAP participation runs 74.6% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 66.1% against 17.8% nationally.

The poverty rate is 77%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 95% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Against the Onondaga County average of 6.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points.

25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $15,439, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Syracuse. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.