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Bay Shore, New York eviction risk overview
Ranked #215 of 1,861 nationally

Bay Shore, NY Eviction Risk: ELEVATED

Suffolk County · Population 31,683

In 2026
Risk score
6.7
ELEVATED

87th percentile, New York.

50-yr Eviction Risk Score history

1976 — 2026 · climbing fast since 2010

Min2.1 Average4.3 Now6.7
10 5 1976 · score 2.1 1977 · score 2.2 1978 · score 2.3 1979 · score 2.4 1980 · score 2.3 1981 · score 2.4 1982 · score 2.4 1983 · score 2.4 1984 · score 2.2 1985 · score 2.2 1986 · score 2.3 1987 · score 2.3 1988 · score 2.8 1989 · score 2.8 1990 · score 2.9 1991 · score 3.0 1992 · score 3.4 1993 · score 3.4 1994 · score 3.5 1995 · score 3.5 1996 · score 4.0 1997 · score 3.9 1998 · score 4.0 1999 · score 4.0 2000 · score 4.1 2001 · score 4.2 2002 · score 4.3 2003 · score 4.4 2004 · score 4.2 2005 · score 4.2 2006 · score 4.3 2007 · score 4.4 2008 · score 4.8 2009 · score 4.9 2010 · score 5.0 2011 · score 5.2 2012 · score 5.3 2013 · score 5.4 2014 · score 5.5 2015 · score 5.6 2016 · score 5.6 2017 · score 5.8 2018 · score 6.1 2019 · score 6.7 2020 · score 7.5 2021 · score 7.5 2022 · score 7.5 2023 · score 7.5 2024 · score 7.2 2025 · score 6.7 2026 · score 6.7

Key metrics

Time machine

Scrub 50 years

2026
● LIVE · today ◀ REPLAY · historical

Nine-axis profile

9-axis profile · today

Shape of the risk surface

1 landlord · 10 tenant
Local 5.9 Regional 5.9 State 7.3 Economic 5.1 Supply 8.5 Rent Control 8.5 Eviction 7.0 Tenant 7.8 Housing 6.4 6.7 ELEVATED
Sub-scores · with sparkline

Where the score comes from

1 → 10 scale
  1. Local political climate
    GOP margin +10.0% (2024)
    5.9
  2. Regional political climate
    County-weighted neighbor mix
    5.9
  3. State political climate
    New York legislature & governorship
    7.3
  4. Economic stress
    8.0% poverty · 4.1% unemp.
    5.1
  5. Supply constraint
    $2,063 average · 37.5% renters
    8.5
  6. Rent Control risk
    36.7% of income on rent
    8.5
  7. Eviction process difficulty
    364 days filing → judgment
    7.0
  8. Tenant organizing strength
    37.5% renters
    7.8
  9. Housing court bias
    County bench composition
    6.4
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bay Shore and the region

Click any city to see its score

How Bay Shore compares

Risk score vs. peers, county, state, and the U.S.
Rank in Suffolk County
Very High
#13 of 148 cities
Rank in county — 92th percentileBottomTop
#13 of 148 cities in Suffolk County for landlord eviction risk.
Rank in New York
High
#200 of 1,285 cities
Rank in state — 85th percentileBottomTop
#200 of 1,285 cities in New York for landlord eviction risk.
vs. county · state · U.S.
Bay Shore risk score vs. county / state / U.S.Bay Shore: 6.76.7Bay ShoreThis cityCounty: 6.06.0Countyavg in countyState: 7.27.2Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avg
Score story

Six-stop tour of the risk profile

  1. 6.7
    / 10 · ELEVATED
    The verdict

    A Elevated-tier market.

    Composite 6.7/10. Mid-range market; standard documentation usually wins. The 50-year curve shows a sharp climb.

    50-yr trend+4.6 over 50 yr
    197620012026

    Steepening since 2010 · COVID inflection visible

  2. 364d
    Typical timeline
    The money

    What renting (and evicting) looks like.

    Rent published at $2,063/mo. A contested eviction takes 364 days and costs $21,144–$37,078 per case.

    50-yr trendCalendar drag rising since '15
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  3. 37.5%
    Renters
    The renters

    Who you'll be renting to.

    Out of 31,683 residents, 37.5% rent. 37% are spending 30%+ income on rent, 8.0% below the poverty line.

    50-yr trendRenter share rising
    197620012026

    ACS 1970-present · once the migration overlay is in.

  4. 5.9
    Local + regional
    The politics

    Mid-range climate. Not a coastal market.

    Local & regional political climate score 5.9 and 5.9 (GOP margin +10.0% (2024)). State climate at 7.3 — tenant-leaning legislature.

    50-yr trendTracks county vote margin
    197620012026

    Built on 50-yr presidential margins back to 1976.

  5. 7.3
    State politics
    The process

    Long calendar, heavy friction.

    State political climate 7.3/10 sets the legislative ceiling for landlord remedies — and shows up in process. Eviction process difficulty reads 7.0, housing court bias 6.4, rent-control risk 8.5. The slow part is the calendar, not the motion practice.

    50-yr trendProcess difficulty +2.0 since '00
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  6. 5.1
    Economic stress
    The stress

    Economic pressure is the background risk.

    Economic stress: 5.1. Supply constraint: 8.5. The numbers behind those: 8.0% poverty, 4.1% unemployment, 37% of income on rent.

    50-yr trendTwo visible dips · '08 + COVID
    197620012026

    Mirrors BLS unemployment series.

US eviction landscape · timeline × all-in cost

Bay Shore sits in the slow & expensive quadrant

Bubble size = population · color = risk score
QUICK BUT COSTLY fast docket · high all-in loss SLOW & EXPENSIVE long calendar · high all-in loss QUICK & CHEAP fast docket · low all-in loss SLOW BUT CHEAP long calendar · low all-in loss 30d 50d 75d 100d 150d 200d 300d 450d $2.0k $3.0k $5.0k $7.5k $10k $15k $20k $30k EVICTION TIMELINE (DAYS) → ↑ ALL-IN COST (LOG SCALE) New York, NY · 417d · ~$29.5k all-in ($71/day) · score 7.8 New York Yonkers, NY · 381d · ~$27.5k all-in ($72/day) · score 8.4 Yonkers New Rochelle, NY · 429d · ~$27.9k all-in ($65/day) · score 7.9 New Rochelle Mount Vernon, NY · 398d · ~$29.6k all-in ($74/day) · score 8.1 Mount Vernon White Plains, NY · 384d · ~$30.7k all-in ($80/day) · score 7.9 White Plains Hempstead, NY · 418d · ~$32.6k all-in ($78/day) · score 7.3 Hempstead Levittown, NY · 387d · ~$30.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 5.5 Levittown Buffalo, NY · 428d · ~$30.3k all-in ($71/day) · score 7.8 Buffalo Rochester, NY · 430d · ~$32.0k all-in ($74/day) · score 7.6 Rochester Syracuse, NY · 383d · ~$30.9k all-in ($81/day) · score 7.2 Syracuse Houston, TX · 24d · ~$2.5k all-in ($103/day) · score 3.4 Houston Phoenix, AZ · 38d · ~$3.3k all-in ($86/day) · score 3.7 Phoenix Memphis, TN · 31d · ~$2.0k all-in ($66/day) · score 4.2 Memphis Atlanta, GA · 40d · ~$2.8k all-in ($69/day) · score 4.9 Atlanta Boston, MA · 187d · ~$20.3k all-in ($109/day) · score 8.1 Boston Chicago, IL · 109d · ~$9.0k all-in ($82/day) · score 6.8 Chicago Seattle, WA · 162d · ~$12.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 8.2 Seattle Bay Shore
Bay Shore · 364d · ~$29.1k all-in ($80/day) · score 6.7 National average: 58d · $4.6k all-in Hover any bubble for stats · click to open Color: 0–4   4–7   7–10
00Overview

About eviction risk in Bay Shore, NY

Landlording in Bay Shore, New York, presents an elevated-friction market where documented notices and proactive screening matter. The Eviction Risk Score is 6.7/10 (ELEVATED tier), drawn from the nine sub-axes shown above — covering rent-control exposure, eviction-process difficulty, housing-court bias, tenant-organizing strength, supply constraint, economic stress, and local, regional, and state political climate. This is not a quick-fix market: it's a Elevated-friction market where lease drafting, screening discipline, and well-documented notices materially change outcomes.

Bay Shore is a city of 31,683 residents where 37.5% of occupied units are renter-occupied, and the typical renter spends 36.7% of income on rent. At an average rent of $2,063/month, the typical renter household here spends more than the federal 30% threshold on housing — a leading indicator of payment volatility and a precondition for the kinds of tenant defenses that show up most often in housing court.

01Process

How Bay Shore eviction process actually works

Eviction process difficulty here reads 7.0/10 — a number that combines statutory complexity (notice categories, just-cause rules, mandatory pre-filing disclosures) with operational realities (court calendar length and clerk responsiveness). The typical contested filing in Bay Shore closes 364 days after the initial notice. For non-payment of rent the first step is a properly-formatted, properly-served pay-or-quit notice; for material lease breaches it's a cure-or-quit; for tenancies under just-cause protection an at-fault grounds notice (or a no-fault notice with statutory relocation assistance) is required.

The slow part of Bay Shore's timeline is usually the calendar, not the motion practice. Housing court bias scores 6.4/10 here, meaning judges read borderline procedural defects in the tenant's favor more often than the national norm. The practical implication: every notice and every proof of service needs to be airtight before it gets filed.

02Cost

What it costs (and how long it takes)

An all-in eviction in Bay Shore runs $21,144 to $37,078 per case once you account for filing fees, attorney time, lost rent during pendency, sheriff lockout, and unit turnover. That range is wide because the upper bound assumes a tenant answer plus motion practice — common when housing court bias is high. The lower bound assumes a default judgment after proper service.

For landlords running the numbers on holding costs vs. cash-for-keys: if your projected timeline times your monthly rent already exceeds the high-end cost number, cash-for-keys at 1–2 months' rent is typically the economically rational choice. With 364 days of typical timeline and $2,063/month in lost rent, that crossover happens fast here.

03Operations

Security deposits, screening, and lease terms

Tenant organizing strength scores 7.8/10 in Bay Shore, and the city sits at the top of the rent control risk spectrum (8.5/10). Operations practice that survives audit in this environment looks like:

  • Screening discipline. Document income (verified at 2.5–3x rent), credit (with a clear minimum), and prior-tenancy reference checks — but do not screen on protected categories or source-of-income where banned. Keep a written, consistent screening criteria document for every applicant.
  • Lease specificity. Use a state-specific lease that names every term clearly: rent due date, late fees within statutory caps, deposit handling, smoke and CO disclosure, lead paint disclosure (pre-1978 stock), and a clean attorney's-fees clause.
  • Security deposit handling. Itemize deductions within the statutory window. Photograph move-in/move-out condition. In New York, deposit cap and refund window are statute — exceed at your own risk.
  • Mid-tenancy documentation. Keep date-stamped records of every rent receipt, every habitability request, every notice served. The day you need them in court is too late to start.
04Strategy

What an everyday landlord should actually do here

If you own one to four units in Bay Shore: hire a property manager who knows the local court. The pricing differential between self-managing and hiring out is small relative to the cost of one botched eviction in a ELEVATED tier market. If you own five or more: build relationships with a local landlord-side attorney before you need one — retainer fees are negligible compared to emergency-rate billing when an eviction is already moving.

The avoidable mistakes here are all upstream of the filing: weak screening, an informal lease, sloppy rent receipts, and notice templates pulled off the internet that don't match New York's statutory language. Fix those four, and most cases settle or default. Skip them, and a $37,078 all-in fight is the realistic worst case.

04bPractical traps

Local traps to avoid in Bay Shore

Trap · 37.5%
37.5% renter share against 31,683 residents produces roughly 11,894 rental occupants in Bay Shore. Nassau County voted D 9.5% in 2020. Eviction filings tend to cluster in the multifamily rental corridor.
05FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Q1

What if my tenant just moves out without telling me?

If a tenant abandons the property, you generally need to follow specific procedures to ensure it's legally abandoned before retaking possession. Document the abandonment (e.g., utilities disconnected, property empty, no response to communication). In New York, it's best to consult an attorney to confirm abandonment and avoid claims of illegal eviction.
Q2

Can I raise the rent in Bay Shore, NY?

Yes, Bay Shore does not have local rent control. However, New York state law requires specific notice periods for rent increases, typically 30, 60, or 90 days depending on how long the tenant has lived there or the percentage increase. Always provide proper written notice.
Q3

What if my tenant damages the property?

Document all damages with photos and written descriptions. You can deduct the cost of repairs for damages beyond normal wear and tear from the security deposit. Remember the 14-day return deadline and the requirement for an itemized statement. If damages exceed the deposit, you may need to pursue the tenant in small claims court, which is a separate process.
Q4

Do I need a lawyer for every eviction in Bay Shore?

Given the complexity, cost, and timeline of New York evictions, it is strongly advised to hire a lawyer for any eviction in Bay Shore. Attempting to handle it yourself is a common mistake that almost always leads to costly delays and errors. The initial legal fees are an investment to avoid much larger losses.
Q5

Can I turn off utilities if a tenant doesn't pay rent?

Absolutely not. Turning off utilities, changing locks, or otherwise attempting "self-help" eviction is illegal in New York and can lead to severe penalties, including fines and damages owed to the tenant. You must follow the legal eviction process through the courts.
06Score

What this score means for landlords2

A 6.7/10 places Bay Shore in the 87th percentile of New York cities on the Eviction Risk Score index. The score is the average of the nine sub-axes, all calibrated on a national 1–10 scale where 1 is most landlord-friendly and 10 is most tenant-protective. The 50-year reconstruction shows this score has risen sharply since 1976 — a structural drift driven by court-calendar growth, rent-control adoption, and the rise of tenant-side legal aid. The trajectory matters more than the snapshot: the score is the climate, not the weather.