Neighborhood · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally

Rogerson Eviction Risk: Lower , Chapel Hill

Tract 37135012103 · Orange County, NC · pop 2,536 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 37135012103, home to 2,536 residents in the Rogerson neighborhood of Chapel Hill, scores 5.2/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 45% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,261 a month against an average household income of $80,556 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 43% of occupied homes.

Risk score

3.6

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 18% Owners 58%

Tract context

Occupied units1,282

Renter share42.7%

SVI overall0.23

Poverty rate4.6%

Median income$80,556

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chapel Hill and the region

Centroid at 35.9113, -79.0173 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rogerson scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Chapel Hill

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.6

State political climate

North Carolina legislature & governorship

2.3

Economic stress

4.6% poverty · this tract

1.2

Supply constraint

$1,261 rent vs county FMR

1.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Chapel Hill

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Chapel Hill

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Chapel Hill

4.0

How Rogerson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 23

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

29%Socioeconomic
32%Household composition
51%Racial/ethnic minority
18%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.0%Housing insecurity
3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
6.9%Food insecurity
4.3%SNAP enrollment
4.5%Transit barriers
5.9%No health insurance
13.1%Frequent mental distress
22.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rogerson

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chapel Hill eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Orange County average of 5.4 and in line with the North Carolina statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 23rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 37135012103

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 37135012103?

Census tract 37135012103 in the Rogerson neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 37135012103?

Median gross rent is $1,261/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 37135012103?

4.6% of residents in tract 37135012103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,536.

How socially vulnerable is tract 37135012103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 32th, minority 51th, housing 18th.

Is tract 37135012103 considered part of Rogerson?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 37135012103 fall within Rogerson (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 37135012103 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 37135012103 compare to Chapel Hill overall?

Tract 37135012103 scores 3.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Chapel Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chapel Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chapel Hill

Top eight tracts in Chapel Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.