2 census tracts · pop 9,257 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.2/10
· range 3.5–4.6
Willow Park takes in 2 census tracts of Fargo, ND, population 9,257. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.2/10, in the Moderate tier. 94% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 20%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.
34% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, ahead of the Fargo rate of 26.3%. Running cool is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10.
The poverty rate is 26%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3.5 to 4.6, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Average gross rent is $869, 8% below the Fargo average of $946.
Among the 25 mapped neighborhoods of Fargo, it ranks #9 by risk, the middle third. For a like-for-like read, Northport and Anderson Park score within a fraction of it.
Social vulnerability runs high at 8.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Willow Park vs FargoHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority64%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport61%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Willow Park
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
15.4%Housing insecurity
10.3%Utility shutoff threat
20.4%Food insecurity
15.2%SNAP enrollment
10.2%No health insurance
27.9%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Willow Park
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Willow Park?
Willow Park scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Willow Park compare to Fargo overall?
Willow Park scores 1.0 points higher than Fargo overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 34% of income on rent vs 26% citywide. Average rent: $869 vs $946.
Q3
What is the average rent in Willow Park?
Average gross rent in Willow Park is $869/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Willow Park residents are renters?
94% of Willow Park households are renter-occupied (vs 56% in Fargo). The neighborhood has 9,257 residents.
Q5
Is Willow Park a high social-vulnerability area?
Willow Park sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Willow Park have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Willow Park is census tract 38017010106 (score 4.6/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.5 to 4.6, a spread of 1.1 points.
Q7
How safe is Willow Park for landlords?
Willow Park carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Fargo as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Willow Park?
Willow Park has 8,377 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (56%), Black (non-Hispanic) (23.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (12.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
