Dayton-Campbell Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 30%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. The poverty rate is 33%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

19.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side is economic stress at 8.1/10. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 25.6% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.2/10. Court records carry 7,414 eviction filings across its 4 observed tracts.

Filing activity peaked in 2015 at 24.3% of renter households. At $923 a month, rents sit 8% under what the rest of Hamilton commands. Recent filings have not receded much: 15.4% in 2018 against a 24.3% peak.

That places it #1 of 7 neighborhoods in Hamilton. The closest comparables inside the same city are German Village Historic District and Lindenwald.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 5.4/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.